Tanker Market: “The American Energy Express” Sets New Dynamic for Ship Owners

Tanker Market: “The American Energy Express” Sets New Dynamic for Ship Owners

The impact of the US oil and products exports is gradually making waves in the tanker market, shifting the market’s dynamics. In its latest analysis, shipbroker Charles R. Weber said that “the U.S. has transformed itself nto a fossil fuel export express!
Tanker Market: “The American Energy Express” Sets New Dynamic for Ship Owners

In their latest Short Term Energy Outlook the EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.7 million barrels per day in November, up 360,000 b/d October. Most of the increase is in the Gulf of Mexico, where production was 290,000 b/d higher than in October as production returned post hurricanes.

The EIA forecasts total U.S. crude oil production to average 9.2Mnbd for all of 2017 and 10Mnbd in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average production, surpassing the previous record of 9.6Mnbd set way back in 1970”.

According to CR Weber’s John M. Kulukundis, “for dry natural gas production the EIA forecasts an average 73.5 Bcf/d in 2017, a 0.7 Bcf/d increase from the 2016 level. In 2018 they forecast that nat gas production will be 6.1 Bcf/d higher than the 2017 level. In 2016 LNG exports averaged 15,323MMcf vs 51,587MMcf Q1‐Q3 2017.   

On the dry side, U.S. coal exports for the first three quarters of 2017 were 69 MMst, 68% (28 MMst) higher than exports for the same period in 2016. This total for the first three quarters of 2017 is already 14% (8 MMst) higher than total annual coal exports in 2016.

The EIA expects that exports will total 89 MMst in 2017 and 74 MMst in 2018. After a weak 2H16 (+1% y/y), which curtailed annual 2016 growth to just 2.8%, growth in US refined product exports have been accelerating through 2017 (+7.1% y/y based on trade statistics up to third quarter 2017).

The momentum was maintained despite the damage caused by Hurricanes in late August, indeed third quarter growth (+9.2% y/y) was the highest since 2Q16”.

 

Source: Hellenic Shipping News

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